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How Professional Gramblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread

The Mostbet team took apart J.R. Miller’s famous book «How Professional Gramblers Beat the Pro Football Pointspread» and highlighted 23 points that you must read in full. The author has been professionally betting on American football for many years, but most of the theses voiced work for any sport.

About Success

  1. The fact that 98% of bettors don’t get richer in betting shouldn’t be intimidating, because those numbers are true for any business. 98 out of 100 people don’t reach the top in any profession, no matter what you’re talking about. The more you learn and the harder you work, the more successful your business is.
  2. Successful players have the quality of «eternal student»: they are constantly self-learning. What a professional thinks about betting theory is dynamic. He does anything but doesn’t stand still. He can easily reconsider even his concrete foundations if they lose effectiveness. He learns always and everywhere and is open to discussion.

About the distance

  1. Anyone with even a little knowledge of mathematics will confirm that the profit after 200 bets with an expectation of winning 55% is more stable than the profit after 50 bets with the expectation of winning 60%. The bettor should concentrate on making a profit, not on the percentage of victories.
  2. It’s important to view sports betting as a long-term investment rather than a get-rich-quick scheme. Professional bettors think about distance, not about winning one bet or profit in a week. They prefer the term «securities market» to «hit the jackpot». The picture of the investment potential of bets arises when thinking about several thousand bets, and not about 10-20.
  3. The desire to draw conclusions based on a small sample of results is a chronic problem for beginners. A popular city is populated by permanent residents, so-called «trend» players. As soon as you are asked to bet on a «trend» based on less than a three-digit number of observations, you need to be on your guard. Usually, such winning streaks are due to statistical outliers.

About bankroll management

  1. Illiterate that money management has produced far more bankrupts than losing bets. One of the biggest mistakes newcomers make is that they think, «If I can guess the winner, everything else will take care of itself.» No, he won’t take care of it and he won’t care yet!
  2. Effective bankroll management begins with the separation of betting capital from ordinary money. If you plan to play seriously, the bankroll should not be used for personal expenses. For example, if the owner of the atelier cannot pay the electricity bill on time, he will not sell sewing machines, because without them he will be out of business. Having spent the bankroll, you are out of business.
  3. The biggest mistake in sports betting is the constant change in the size of bets. This leads to significant losses, whether the change is caused by instinctive and spontaneous decisions or carefully thought-out and complex progressive systems.

About bookmakers

  1. The bookmaker’s line is not the bookmaker’s forecast for the outcome of the match, it is the division of public opinion of the players regarding the outcome of the game. By placing a bet, you are not playing against the bookmaker, but expressing your point of view regarding the collective opinion of all bettors. As long as the bookmaker maintains a balance of bets on the event, he has no financial interest at all in which of his customers will win and who will lose. You do not win against the bookmaker, you beat the opinion of his other customers.
  2. Contrary to popular belief, the betting commission is deducted from the winner’s winnings, not the loser’s bet. The loser does not pay: he has lost everything he risked.

About Motivation

  1. Objectively, a stronger team sometimes loses, and it’s not about luck. In such defeats, motivation plays an important role. You’ve seen teams turn into a cohesive whole and start hovering over the field, and the opponent is knocked out and their game completely falls apart. Moreover, during the match, the level of motivation can jump a lot (for example, due to an unrealized penalty), and teams can switch roles.The bettor’s job is to determine how much teams are susceptible to such changes in the game. The importance of motivation is hard to overstate. Talent and training are important, but these guys are professional players who are paid a lot of money: between two randomly selected groups, the difference in strength is minimal. The problem is that it is impossible to create mathematical formulas that will take motivation into account.The key to predicting the role of motivation is in figuring out the fundamental nature of teams. When the game seems equally important to both sides, it is necessary to understand their maturity and level of stability. All this is more of a test of your psychological abilities than a statistical test. Learn to identify which team is more (or less) motivated most of the time, and you’ll gain a significant advantage.

About information gathering

  1. In the news stream, look for inconsistencies between the lines: disunity between players, disagreements on contracts, replacement of coaches, the departure of stars, divorces, and other personal life events. All of them have little to do with sports but prevent players from maintaining concentration. Losing a star doesn’t always have bitter consequences if he’s not a leader by nature. There are always players in the team who form moral stability. They are not always given much attention in the media, but the loss of one or two of these key figures can have a much stronger impact on the psychological stability of the team than the replacement of a promoted star.
  2. If a player or coach publicly announces his resignation or resignation, you can assume that he is retired. Their careers aren’t going to go up anymore, because now they’re thinking more about what their carpet cleaning firm, which they’re about to open, will look like.
  3. Interviews are a good source of information for assessing the chances of teams. Speeches for the press have little to do with what a person thinks, but attention should be paid not to words, but to body language. Non-verbal language (intonation, facial expressions) is important, especially instant reactions to questions.
  4. Keep an eye on players’ contracts. Dissatisfaction with the conditions appears for various reasons, but the result is always the same — a drop in the level of the game.
  5. The fundamental nature of the team is determined, among other things, by its owners and managers. If they don’t have ambition and the spirit of winners, then the players won’t have those qualities either. The lack of good relations between management and the team also undermines the atmosphere at the club. If a team has changed hands, don’t expect it to continue to play at the traditional level, regardless of whether it played poorly, well, or average.

About betting

  1. A forecast based on bare statistics is not a determining factor when choosing a bet.
  2. There will inevitably be winning and losing streaks in betting. This must not only be understood and accepted but also understand why this is happening.
  3. The worst team in the league can have a great game on a good day, but that’s not a reason to bet on it all the time. The best team in the league can give a terrible match, but that doesn’t mean it will continue to be so.
  4. The less time before the start of the game, the more bets on favorites, so the offices balance the lines and change them in favor of outsiders to attract more money to this side. Hence the rule: if you like the favorite, bet as early as possible, if you like the outsider — wait. But remember that this is a generalized principle, and exceptions exist.
  5. The real test for any betting system is: how will it show itself after you find out about it? On sale, you can find many systems that work until they are sold. Once that happens, somehow they stop working.

About the Supernatural

  1. Gamblers are often superstitious, but this only applies to beginners. No professional player takes supernatural powers into account. It’s not so scary to use the lucky hand of a lucky girlfriend for betting a couple of times, but if you constantly bet on the team because of your favorite number on the quarterback’s T-shirt or because their coach has a six-letter last name, your career as a sports bettor will end quickly.
  2. Your key to success in sports betting is not on distant stars, but in yourself. There are no shortcuts, voodoo dolls, or gurus and spirits that protect players. It’s up to you. You need to work and spend time on books and expert materials, you need to collect information from different authors and select the best from each of them. to beat everyone sooner or later.

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